What is Positive EV?
Understanding Expected Value in Sports Betting
Positive Expected Value (+EV) is the cornerstone concept of profitable sports betting. When a bet has positive EV, it means that over the long run, placing that bet will result in profit. It's the mathematical edge that separates professional bettors from casual gamblers.
How to Calculate Expected Value
The expected value formula is straightforward:
EV = (Probability of Winning Ă— Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing Ă— Amount Lost)
Real Example:
Let's say you find a bet with these characteristics:
- Odds: +150 (2.50 decimal)
- Your calculated true probability: 45%
- Bet size: $100
EV = (0.45 Ă— $150) - (0.55 Ă— $100)
EV = $67.50 - $55.00
EV = +$12.50
This positive EV of $12.50 means that on average, you'd expect to profit $12.50 for every $100 bet placed at these odds, assuming your probability assessment is accurate.
Why Positive EV is the Key to Long-Term Profit
🎯 The Law of Large Numbers
While individual bets are unpredictable, positive EV ensures that over hundreds or thousands of bets, you'll trend toward profit. It's mathematical certainty, not luck.
đź“Š Beating the Bookmaker's Edge
Sportsbooks build in a margin (vig) to ensure they profit. Finding +EV bets means you've identified situations where the true probability exceeds what the odds imply.
đź’° Compound Growth
Consistently betting with positive EV allows your bankroll to grow exponentially over time, especially when combined with proper bankroll management.
🔍 Objective Decision Making
EV calculations remove emotion from betting decisions. You're not betting on your favorite team — you're investing in mathematical advantages.
Common Misconceptions About Positive EV
❌ Myth: “Positive EV guarantees winning”
Reality: Positive EV only guarantees profit over a large sample size. You can still lose individual bets or even have losing streaks.
❌ Myth: “Higher odds always mean better EV”
Reality: EV depends on both the odds AND the true probability. A -110 bet can have better EV than a +500 bet if the probabilities align correctly.
❌ Myth: “You need to win most of your bets”
Reality: You can be profitable with a 40% win rate if you're consistently finding positive EV opportunities at plus-money odds.
How OddsBandit Finds Positive EV Bets
OddsBandit's advanced algorithms continuously scan odds across multiple bookmakers to identify positive EV opportunities in real-time:
- Market Inefficiency Detection:
We spot when bookmakers have mispriced lines compared to the true probability
- Cross-Book Analysis:
Compare odds across 50+ bookmakers to find the best available prices
- Real-Time Alerts:
Get notified instantly when positive EV opportunities arise
- EV Calculations:
Every bet shows its expected value percentage and potential profit
Key Takeaways
- 1
Positive EV is the mathematical foundation of profitable betting — it ensures long-term profit despite short-term variance
- 2
Calculate EV by comparing the true probability of an outcome to the implied probability from the betting odds
- 3
Success requires patience and discipline — individual results will vary, but the math ensures profit over time
- 4
Tools like OddsBandit automate the process of finding positive EV opportunities across multiple bookmakers
Ready to Start Betting with an Edge?
Now that you understand positive EV, it's time to put this knowledge into practice. Join thousands of smart bettors who use OddsBandit to find profitable opportunities every day.
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